Nebraska has 3 representatives: All Republican
Filing deadline was March 3, primary is May 13
Nevada has 3 representatives: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat
Filing deadline is May 16, primary is Aug 12
New Hampshire has 2 representatives: Both Democrats
Filing deadline is June 13, primary is Sept 9
District: NE-01
Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha. Borders MO and IA
Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 54-43
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Fortenberry beat Matt Connealy, while raising $1.2 million to Connealy’s $1 million. In 2006, Maxine Moul and Fortenberry each raised about $1 million
Current opponents Max Yashirin (site in development)
Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: NE-02
Location Omaha and suburbs
Representative Lee Terry (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 61-36
Bush margin 2004 60-38
Notes on opponents In 2004, Nancy Thompson raised $900K to Terry’s $1.4 million. In 2006, Jim Esch raised $400K to Terry’s $1 million
Current opponents Jim Esch ,
Richard Carter (who blogs at Daily Kos: list of Richard Carter diaries
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment One can’t say we’re the favorites, here, but I think we have some chance
District: NE-03
Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS
Representative Adrian Smith (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 75-24
Notes on opponents In 2006, Scott Kleeb made this a close race, raising $1 million to Smith’s $1.2 million
Current opponents Jay Stoddard and Paul Spatz
Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 6th most Republican
Assessment Long shot. Kleeb is running for Senate, which is probably an easier race to win
District: NV-01
Location Las Vegas
Representative Shelley Berkley (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 66-31
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)
Assessment Safe
District: NV-02
Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ
Representative Dean Heller (R)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 57-41
Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat. Heller and his opponent, Jill Derby, each raised about $1.6 million
Current opponents Jill Derby is running again
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%),
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this the 38th most vulnerable Republican seat. This may depend on how fed up the military gets with the Republicans and Iraq
District: NV-03
Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs
Representative Jon Porter (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 48-47
2004 margin 54-40
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents In 2006, Tessa Hafen raised $1.5 million to Porter’s $3 million. In 2004, Tom Gallagher and Porter each raised around $2.5 million
Current opponents Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels and Robert Daskas
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. superrribie (link above) ranks this the 21st most vulnerable Republican seat
District: NH-01
Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME
Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Notes on opponents In 2006, Shea-Porter did something very unusual: She ousted an incumbent while spending much less than the incumbent ($300K to $1 million). A people-powered progressive, she has turned down opportunities from the DCCC.
Current opponents Jeb Bradley wants a rematch. John Stephen doesn’t want him to have one.
Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment Although superribbie ranks this the 10th most vulnerable Democratic seat, I think this is one where models fail.
District: NH-02
Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA
Representative Paul Hodes(D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 53-46
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 47-52
Notes on opponents In 2006, Hodes ousted Charles Bass, raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2 million.
Current opponents Jim Steiner.
Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this the 24th most vulnerable Democratic seat
has four Republican opponents vying for the nomination:
1) Jim Steiner (lawyer, veteran)
2) Jennifer Horn (right-wing radio host)
3) Grant Bosse (ex-staffer for Sununu)
4) Bob Clegg (state legislator)
Horn seems to have the biggest NRCC support, but Clegg the biggest state support.
None of them are a real threat, imho.